US Dollar Weakened During the Session, LME Zinc Did Not Continue to Decline [SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary]

Zinc Morning Meeting Summary on January 7

Spot Fundamentals

Shanghai: In the early session, the market quoted spot premiums of around 250 yuan/mt over the average price, with almost no follow-up quotations. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at premiums of around 600 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2501 contract, Huize was quoted at premiums of 550 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2501 contract, while high-end brand Shuangyan had no quotations against the SHFE 2501 contract. Although some zinc ingots arrived over the weekend, overall market quotations from traders remained limited. Some downstream buyers, concerned about continued tight supply, began raw material stocking recently. Coupled with further declines in the futures market, overall spot transactions improved.

Guangdong: In the first session, suppliers quoted premiums of 560~580 yuan/mt for Qilin, Mengzi, and Lan zinc. Zinc prices pulled back, and inventory continued to decrease, prompting traders to raise premiums for sales. In the second session, Qilin was quoted at premiums of 630 yuan/mt over the online price. Overall, the center of zinc prices moved downward, but spot supply remained limited, and overall transactions were relatively moderate.

Tianjin: By midday close, Xinzi was quoted at premiums of 300~350 yuan/mt against the SHFE 01 contract, Chihong at 300~350 yuan/mt, Xikeng at 180 yuan/mt, and Bailin had no quotations. High-end brand Zijin was quoted at premiums of around 360~370 yuan/mt against the SHFE 01 contract. Despite the pullback in the futures market, downstream buyers maintained a bearish outlook and showed weak purchase willingness. Early session traders held firm on prices, but later slightly lowered premiums. Overall transactions were moderate.

Ningbo: In the first session, Qilin was quoted at premiums of 450 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2501 contract, Honglu-V at 470 yuan/mt, and Huize at 600 yuan/mt. In the second session, traders' quotations remained unchanged from the previous session. While more traders were selling in Ningbo, the overall market supply remained tight. Spot premiums stayed high, and with the futures market at low levels, downstream buyers made just-in-time procurement at lower prices, improving overall spot transactions.

Social Inventory: According to SMM, as of Monday (January 6), total zinc ingot inventory across seven regions tracked by SMM stood at 61,700 mt, down 800 mt from December 30 and down 2,800 mt from January 2, with domestic inventory recording a decline. Shanghai inventory increased slightly as imported and domestic zinc ingots arrived over the weekend. Guangdong inventory decreased due to fewer arrivals at warehouses over the weekend and significant outflows from warehouses for regional transfers. Tianjin inventory increased with normal arrivals at warehouses over the weekend and just-in-time procurement by downstream buyers, resulting in relatively small inventory changes. Overall, inventories in the three regions decreased by 3,000 mt, while the seven-region inventory decreased by 2,800 mt.

Zinc Price Forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a doji candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Band forming resistance. LME zinc inventory fell by 1,175 mt to 229,150 mt, a decrease of 0.51%. The US dollar index weakened, and while LME zinc pared some losses during the session, the recovery was limited. Attention should be paid to a series of upcoming economic data. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with support from the lower Bollinger Band. SMM's Monday zinc inventory fell by 2,800 mt WoW to 61,700 mt, remaining at low levels. Despite a significant increase in zinc concentrate TCs, domestic smelters still had cost support, leading to a temporary pause in SHFE zinc's decline and a slight rebound in its center.